Roger-Luc Chayer (Image : AI / Gay Globe)

Well, here we go again: the rumor and homophobia machine is back in business with an article from the Journal de Montréal, published last week, which announces in a large headline: “It worries me because young people are protecting themselves less”: a record number of HIV cases in 20 years in Quebec.

The article is now circulating on social media with a shorter version: “A record number of HIV cases in 20 years in Quebec,” which obviously has the effect of bringing out hateful and conspiracy-based comments on a page called Petit Petit Québec, which does not even bother to sign its publication.

Let’s start at the beginning: what is the actual situation regarding HIV in Quebec, and why are homosexuals still being attacked by portraying them as vectors of transmission, when scientific data demonstrate that HIV is not transmitted based on a person’s sexual orientation and do not even involve gay men?

In 2023, 1,110 new HIV cases were recorded, while in 2024, the most recent year for which figures are available, 1,122 new cases were recorded throughout Quebec. This is indeed a record number of new cases, but it is important to explain this figure and put it into context.

According to the report by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ), the causes are multiple, and the first, the most important, is that young people are protecting themselves less and using condoms less. We must first recognize that HIV prevention has changed profoundly. For a generation that did not experience the darkest years of the epidemic, HIV is now associated with a disease that can be effectively controlled through treatment. PrEP, testing and antiretroviral treatments have also transformed the way risk is assessed and managed.

This evolution nevertheless has a paradoxical effect: the more medicine progresses, the less threatening HIV may seem. The condom, which was long presented as the main barrier against HIV, is now one tool among several prevention strategies. Some young people may therefore be less inclined to use it systematically, particularly when they know that they have other ways of reducing their risk of HIV.

But it would be far too easy to conclude that young people have simply stopped protecting themselves. Condoms remain important because they also protect against several other sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections, against which PrEP offers no protection.

Above all, we must avoid a shortcut that could unnecessarily fuel stigma: a decrease in condom use among some young people does not mean that homosexuals are responsible for the rise in HIV diagnoses in Quebec. HIV is not a gay disease. It is an infection that can affect anyone exposed to the virus, regardless of sexual orientation.

A second important reason is that HIV testing declined sharply during the pandemic, creating the impression that the transmission rate was decreasing, when in reality, new cases were simply being detected and recorded less often than before or after the pandemic. Lockdowns and the reduction in social and sexual contacts could also create the false impression that HIV was declining, when part of the decrease observed in the statistics was instead explained by reduced testing and detection of infections.

As for the people affected, rather than once again attacking gay men in response to the record increase in HIV cases in Quebec, we need to look more closely at the data. In its report, the INSPQ states that 62% of new diagnoses concerned people who had arrived in Canada less than six years earlier.

What does this actually mean?

First, we must avoid a fundamental confusion: a new HIV diagnosis is not necessarily a new infection. A person may have contracted HIV before arriving in Canada and only be diagnosed after settling in Quebec. The fact that the person appears in Quebec’s statistics therefore means that they received their diagnosis here, not necessarily that they were infected here.

This is an essential point when analyzing the recent increase in cases. The INSPQ observes that the increase in new diagnoses since 2019 is mainly seen among people born outside Canada who arrived in the country during the previous five years. Conversely, among people born in Canada or those born abroad but established in Canada for six years or more, the number of new diagnoses has instead decreased.

This therefore means that recent immigration is an important factor in the current evolution of Quebec’s HIV statistics. But this absolutely does not mean that immigrants are responsible for HIV transmission in Quebec. The place and timing of a diagnosis alone cannot determine where and when the infection was acquired.

It must also be taken into account that some people may arrive in Canada with an existing infection and be diagnosed upon arrival or during the following years. In 2022, the INSPQ notably observed a significant increase in diagnoses among people originating from countries where HIV is endemic, and emphasized the importance of increased migration when interpreting the data.

This is why the statistics must be read much more cautiously than a simple headline announcing a record number of HIV cases would suggest. A diagnosis is not proof of recent transmission, and a person’s origin is not a cause of transmission.

The reality is therefore much more complex than the hateful comments circulating on social media. To understand the increase in HIV in Quebec, we need to look at migration histories, testing, timing of diagnosis, access to care, sexual behaviours, prevention and the different groups exposed to the virus. It is only by bringing all of these data together that we can understand what is really happening.

For heterosexual women and young gay men?

The statistics also show that the number of new HIV diagnoses among women is at its highest level in 20 years and that, in the vast majority of cases, transmission occurs through heterosexual sexual contact.

Next in the statistics are young gay men and people who use injectable drugs.

And the social media outrage!

People who use social media as a source of news and information often do not bother to read the full articles published by serious and professional media outlets. This sometimes leads to comments that I am happy to share here for educational purposes.

It should be noted that, for this article, I have deliberately mentioned the names of the people and their comments, since these were published publicly. People should therefore own what they post! It should be noted that the comments are published as they appeared, spelling mistakes included…

Guy Gravel: Professor Montagnier said it himself that the COVID vaccine contained an HIV strain, and unfortunately he died not long afterward. (Luc Montagnier, who had participated in the discovery of HIV and received the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2008, did indeed claim in 2020 that the SARS-CoV-2 VIRUS contained, according to him, HIV sequences. This claim was disputed by the scientific community. However, it has never been demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccines themselves contained an HIV strain).

Richard Ayotte: Coincidence 🌈 (Once again, the association between HIV and the gay community is false and is not supported anywhere in the INSPQ report).

B’lette Langlais: Professor Montagnier said it. (False, see the explanation above).

Normand Whissell: Here’s another gift from the Third World. (Racist comment; the INSPQ report mentions immigration without mentioning people’s origins)

Patrick Hamel: Straight into the vaccine. (False, see the explanation above).

Sylvain Vilandré: Bring in more dark-skinned people from overseas wearing flip-flops with all their shitty diseases, until one dirty one gives us Ebola. (No comment)

John Johnny: Are we surprised?

Soffy TheWhite: I read somewhere at the time that the second vaccine had HIV in it. (False)

Eric Brien: Not when we bring in millions of individuals without any medical testing. (False. Permanent residents must undergo medical examinations and tests before entering the country. Refugees and asylum seekers must undergo a medical examination within 30 days of making their claim. Very often, they have already contracted HIV before arriving in Canada and discover it once they are in the country. This therefore does not mean that they contracted HIV here.)

Marc Morisette: The number of Third World parasites we are going to have to treat at our expense. (Racism)

Emma VB Foxwolf: Dr. Montagnier said that their magical spike soup was spiked with HIV as gain-of-function … it’s laboratory-created crap, the K-Vid. (False, he never said that, see above).

Yannick Forget: At the same time, if there is an influx of immigrants from Africa, it was to be expected. (The INSPQ report does not mention this).

Franco De Martino: AIDS is a scam by eugenicist psychopaths… Just like COVID! A BIG lie 😈🤫👿

Normand Michaud: that was their goal ,,to reduce the population, you got the mark of the beast in you

The example of the gay community

Rather than once again looking for a scapegoat, perhaps we should look to those who, for years, have learned to live with HIV and develop effective prevention strategies. Among gay men, PrEP, regular testing, condom use when necessary and a better understanding of HIV treatment are now among the tools available to reduce new infections. It is not sexual orientation that protects people: it is information, prevention, testing and access to care. The response to the current increase in diagnoses should therefore not be to point the finger at gay men, but rather to draw on prevention strategies that have proven effective and make them accessible to everyone who can benefit from them. HIV has no sexual orientation and, above all, prevention should have no prejudice.

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